Utilization of Captured CO2 to Reach 800 Mt by 2044, Finds IDTechEx

Author: Eve Pope, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx

IDTechEx predicts that by 2044, utilization of waste CO₂ will reach 800 Mt to create over 3,000 Mt of useful products. Revenue generated through carbon dioxide utilization (CO₂U) over the next two decades will be vital to enabling the development of commercially viable CO₂ capture technologies for the future. In combination, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies are critical in supporting the decarbonization of the world’s economy as countries strive to reach net zero goals. 

The new report published by IDTechEx, “Carbon Dioxide Utilization 2024-2044: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”, provides a comprehensive outlook of the global CO₂ utilization industry, with an in-depth analysis of the technological, economic, and environmental aspects that are set to shape this emerging market over the next twenty years. The report also includes a twenty-year granular forecast for the deployment of 11 CO₂U product categories, covering the amount of CO₂ utilized and the revenue generated, alongside 30+ interview-based company profiles. IDTechEx considers CO₂ use cases in enhanced oil recovery, building materials, liquid and gaseous fuels, polymers, chemicals, and in biological yield-boosting (crop greenhouses, algae, and fermentation), exploring the technology innovations and opportunities within each area.

What is CO₂ utilization?

Carbon dioxide utilization technologies refer to the practical use of waste CO₂, captured abiotically using direct air capture or point source capture of industrial emitters (including industrial biogenic carbon dioxide sources), to create financial benefits and produce net CO₂ emissions reduction or removal. Manufacturing pathways include direct injection, mineralization, electrochemistry, microbial synthesis, thermocatalysis, and photosynthesis. Alongside promoting a more circular economy, CO₂U can also sometimes result in products with enhanced properties. Carbon dioxide utilization products provide climate benefits by displacing fossil-fuel-based incumbents; some are net-zero or even net-negative.

Despite its potential to create a market for waste CO₂, not all CO₂U technologies are created equal. These systems face a range of economic, technical, and regulatory challenges that need to be carefully considered so that the technologies that actually provide climate benefits – and are economically viable – can be prioritized and pursued. For instance, for many CO₂U routes, the CO₂ sequestration is only temporary, with the CO₂ utilized being released to the atmosphere once the product is consumed (e.g., CO₂-derived fuels or proteins), while for others, the CO₂ can be stored permanently (e.g., CO₂-derived building materials). On the economic side, many CO₂U pathways can be considerably more expensive than their fossil-based counterparts due to high energy requirements, low yields, or the need for other expensive feedstock (e.g., green hydrogen, catalysts).

This IDTechEx report, “Carbon Dioxide Utilization 2024-2044: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”, provides insights into the most promising processes being developed in CO₂U, highlighting the pros and cons of each pathway and end-product. Innovative companies worldwide are developing technologies to improve the energy efficiency of CO₂ conversion processes and reduce their costs. This report gives an overview of these players' latest developments, with first-hand accounts of the challenges and opportunities within the industry.

Market outlook for carbon dioxide utilization

CO₂-derived building materials and CO₂-derived fuels represent the areas with high growth potential. Both markets intrinsically have large CO₂ utilization potentials, but each have its own specific drivers. CO₂U in building materials is the more straightforward CO₂U technology, able to lower the carbon footprint of ready-mixed concrete, pre-cast concrete, and carbonate aggregates/supplementary cementitious materials through mineralization reactions. Carbon dioxide can be permanently stored, and cement use can be reduced. Growth will be driven by new certifications, superior materials performance, and the ability to achieve price parity through waste disposal fees.

CO₂-derived fuels market penetration is expected to come largely from regulations already being put in place, such as fuel-blend mandates for long-haul transportation. As green hydrogen electrolyzer capacity scales up worldwide, production of e-fuels from carbon dioxide using power-to-x technology (including e-methanol, synthetic natural gas, e-diesel, e-kerosene, and e-gasoline production) will also increase. Several CO₂-derived fuels are already being commercially produced (with many more commercial facilities expected over the next decade) and could play a role in decarbonizing shipping and aviation (as full electrification of the aviation and maritime sectors is currently unfeasible and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future).  

Some CO₂-derived chemicals (particularly CO₂-derived polycarbonates) are already produced commercially but only require relatively small amounts of CO₂ compared to other applications. While potentially all carbon containing chemicals could utilize carbon dioxide in production, those requiring non-reductive pathways are the most promising due to a smaller energy demand. Carbon dioxide utilization in crop greenhouse enrichment is another mature application set to grow once CO₂ pipeline transport infrastructure expands. Several companies look to circumvent this transportation problem by using DAC (direct air capture) on-site. CO₂-EOR will remain the biggest application area over the next two decades due to its profitability, established infrastructure, and continued demand for oil.

IDTechEx finds that after a slow but steady progress during this decade, the CO₂U market will likely grow rapidly from the 2030s onwards to reach 800 Mt by 2044. Revenue generated by CO₂U is currently dominated by CO₂-EOR, but building materials, fuels, and chemicals will gain a significant share over the next twenty years.

Key questions answered in this report:

• What is CO₂ utilization, and how can it be used to address climate change?
• How is CO₂ used in the industry today?
• What is the market potential for CO₂U?
• How can CO₂ be converted into useful products?
• What is the technology readiness level of CO₂U processes?
• What are the energy and feedstocks requirements for CO₂U processes?
• How does the performance of CO₂-derived products compare with their conventional counterparts?
• What are the key drivers and hurdles for CO₂U market growth?
• How much do CO₂U technologies cost?
• Where are the key growth opportunities for CO₂U?
• Who are the key players in CO₂U?
• What is the climate impact of CO₂U technologies?

To find out more about the new IDTechEx report “Carbon Dioxide Utilization 2024-2044: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/CO2U.

For more information on IDTechEx’s energy and decarbonization market research portfolio, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Energy.

Upcoming free-to-attend webinar

The Role of CO₂ Utilization in Achieving Carbon Neutrality

Eve Pope, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx and author of this article, will be presenting a free to attend webinar on Wednesday 7 February 2024 – The Role of CO2 Utilization in Achieving Carbon Neutrality.

This webinar will reveal insights into CO₂U technologies, and its content includes:

• Overview of CO₂ utilization pathways and products
• Discussion of environmental, technical, and economic factors for the most promising CO₂U technologies (CO₂-enhanced oil recovery, CO₂-derived fuels, and CO₂-derived building materials)
• Contextualization of carbon utilization's role within CCUS and global progress towards net-zero

Click here to find out more and register your place on one of our three sessions. If you are unable to make the date, please register anyway to receive the links to the on-demand recording (available for a limited time) and webinar slides as soon as they are available.